The Blue Book pointed out that looking forward to 2020, although there are still many difficulties and uncertainties in the recovery of pig production capacity, there are more positive factors, the price of the pig market will run at a high level, and the profit level will be high. By the end of 2019, fertile sow production capacity is expected to take the lead in achieving sequential growth, which will lead to a full recovery of hog production capacity in 2020. The number of pigs on the market and the number of pigs will increase, and pork production will increase significantly compared to 2019.
Since the occurrence of African swine fever in August 2018, the national pig production capacity has continued to decline, and the number of pigs slaughtered and stocked in 2019 has shown a significant decline. In the first three quarters of 2019, the number of pigs slaughtered nationwide was 409.78 million, a decrease of 17.3% over the same period of the previous year. The pork output was 31.81 million tons, a decrease of 17.2% over the same period of the previous year. . According to the monitoring of 400 large pig counties nationwide by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September 2019, the number of capable sow stocks decreased by 38.9% compared with the same period last year, and the number of live pigs decreased by 41.1% compared with the same period last year. The production capacity of the main pig-producing counties and other main producing areas may be more severely affected, and the production reduction may be even greater.
The Blue Book Group said that since 2019, the country has attached great importance to the control of the African swine fever epidemic, and has adopted a series of measures to stabilize pig production and promote the rapid increase of pigs. After entering July, in response to the adverse impact of continuous tightening of hog supply and the rapid and sharp increase in pork prices on market operations and the overall economic and social situation, the state has introduced a number of preferential policies such as land supply guarantee for hog production, policy insurance and loans . In addition to policy incentives, pig and pork prices continue to run at high levels, with high profit levels for pig farmers and strong market stimulus, investor enthusiasm will eventually be mobilized.
On the whole, some of the leading indicators of pig production capacity in the fourth quarter of 2019, such as the ability to multiply sow stocks and pig stocks, are estimated to be in a period of decline from rise to rise. The stable situation of pig production capacity in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to further appear, and the gradual pick-up of pig production capacity in the second quarter is expected to be more obvious. In the third quarter, the pig production capacity and pork supply will show a comprehensive recovery, not only the pig inventory volume is chain The number of pigs on the market and the number of pigs on the market may increase year-on-year. Pork output will also grow faster month-on-year and year-on-year, and the tight pork supply situation will gradually ease.
Post time: Dec-10-2019